Top forecasters predict where this year’s economic and political risks will be and why they matter. While the specter of the financial crisis still looms, countries are emerging from its wake and becoming part of an increasingly interconnected, dynamic political and economic environment. As the balance of global power changes within it, so do the risks that countries face. Prominent forecasters weigh in on the greatest issues affecting the global politics and economic landscape in the year ahead.
The Eurasia Group’s list of the greatest risks in 2011. The firm’s report also highlights fragmentation in the European Union, cybersecurity threats, internal struggles within Mexico and Pakistan, and the likely implementation of currency controls around the world.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report focuses on globalization’s disorders—economic disparities within and among countries, as well as a lack of global governance—which could lead to further fiscal and monetary instability, a rise in illegal economic activity, and resource shortages.
The Center for Global Development forecast how as in recent years, the major risks for emerging market economies in 2011 will come not from the policies and actions of the countries themselves, but from developments in advanced economies. There are three major risks: the debt crisis in Europe and the ramifications of potential sovereign defaults, continued sluggish growth in the United States, and China’s role in the so-called “currency wars” that are adversely affecting many developing countries.
McKinsey’s Shanghai office – What might happen in China this year? Despite inflation, bankruptcies, and other problems, industrial enterprises should remain highly profitable. China may once again surprise the world.
More forecastings will be added.