This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya.
Research Professor. Director at Learning Change Project – Research on society, culture, art, neuroscience, cognition, critical thinking, intelligence, creativity, autopoiesis, self-organization, rhizomes, complexity, systems, networks, sustainability, thinkers, ++
Giorgio Bertini does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from these papers, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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